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Adam Fields , SVP , Product and Technology
Strategy , Kofax
• Blockchain will not just be for pixelated monkey art . Wow . I was both right and somewhat right on this one . I posited that the NFT market would subside last year and true to form with any new tech fad , average prices fell by a whopping 92 % since May 2022 . At the same time , as global macroeconomic headwinds hit , the value of most cryptocurrencies plummeted . Enter the FTX scandal – which is still playing out as of this writing – combined with drying up start-up investments in general , and the adoption of Blockchain outside of crypto has slowed . Prediction : SOMEWHAT RIGHT
• AI will go mainstream for next-gen automation . You might say that this was an obvious one , but it ’ s also been on the Top 10 list of every technology crystal ball holder for many years – and for many years they were wrong . But the combination of workers shortages , hybrid work and the most rapid capability advancement in recent memory , made this a reality in 2022 . AI was one of the fastest-growing IT investment segments last year ; IDC expected spending to reach $ 118 billion by the end of 2022 , and it will more than double that to surpass $ 300 million in 2026 . Other tools like GPT-3 , Deep Mind and DALL-E – which many hadn ’ t even heard of at the end of 2021 – finally received the recognition that these digital helpers are here to stay . Prediction : NAILED IT
And now , here are nine new predictions for which I will hold myself accountable for 2023 :
• Back to centralization ( somewhat ) in a decentralized world . While the decentralization train is picking up speed ( more on that later ), this year will begin to see a bit of regression back to IT centralization for many organizations . IT once held control over technology investments , only to relinquish it to the lines of business over the last few years . Well , IT is back , baby ! Based on the aforementioned lack of developers and the drive towards ecosystems ( more below ), while lines of business will still push towards outcome-driven buying decisions , central IT organizations will again wield power over shared systems . So , what types of systems will the CIO lean towards ?
• Bye-bye , best-of-breed . Hello , software ecosystems ! Highly technical worker shortages will only escalate in the coming years making it challenging for CIOs to buy best-of-breed technology for every need . Gone are the days of weaving together a myriad of solutions . The ecosystem that provides ease of use , frictionless buying , security , interoperability and a library of third-party add-ons will win out . Even the home automation space – once a frenetic battleground of competitors vying for customer loyalty based on features and usability – will come together and take off in 2023 with the introduction of common standards like Matter and Thread . However , one shouldn ’ t read “ ecosystem ” to mean rigid . Just the opposite , in fact . . .
• Applications become composable . Just becausea vendor offers a well-integrated set of products and capabilities , it doesn ’ t mean they will be rigid and irreplaceable – just the opposite . These ecosystems need to be plug-and-play , allowing thirdparty vendors ( often called ISVs ) to build solutions on top of creating composable business applications . These solutions can be purchased when needed and moved in and out at little cost to the buyer . And instead of generic , most of the value will be gained through the industry intellectual property . For instance , instead of a composable app that provides the capability to extract and normalize data , it will be specifically geared towards understanding banking , healthcare or other industry standard use cases . This will also empower the less-technical bunch since they won ’ t need to rely on IT , but rather a modular architecture empowering their every move . Speaking of the less-technical crowd . . .
• The Citizen Developer hath risen ! . . . They ’ re more technical than most want to admit ! There will always be a need for professional developers but the “ rise of the citizen developer ” has reached a point where we should begin talking about Citizen Developer 2.0 . Those who fall into this new category have increasingly more technical skills by the day , combined with a willingness to get their hands dirty . As projections place a 4:1 citizento-pro-developer mix by the end of 2023 , expect organizations to push more down to these types that may not have been considered just a few years ago . Advanced and affordable AI will help .
• The AI explains the AI . With increased ubiquity and budget no longer a barrier to entry , AI technologies have seen an increased level of scrutiny – from both governments and consumers . While “ explainable AI ” was a nice-to-have , this year it ’ s a must . Increasingly , governments around the world are imposing regulations on AI opacity , essentially meaning that certain AI models that govern important decisions need to be able to explain how precisely that decision was made . Luckily , there ’ s a way to more easily explain those decisions .
• Natural language AI for insights and development . 2022 was probably the fastest year on record related to the democratization of AI . It seemed like each week a new player hit the street placing the power of advanced Artificial Intelligence in the hands of anyone with an email address . Look no further than DALL-E 2 , Stable Diffusion , Midjourney and others allowing anyone with a keyboard ( or voice ) to generate bespoke objects
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