FEATURE: QUANTUM COMPUTING configuration interaction methods. Yet eFTQC could make these simulations practical with only a thousand logical qubits. Such capabilities would revolutionize drug discovery, catalysis and energy research, the report says.
“ Quantum processors will not replace classical codes wholesale,” said Peronnin.“ But they will tackle bottleneck subproblems like ground-state energy calculations that determine the accuracy of larger workflows.”
Nuclear Fusion and Energy
Another promising area identified in the report is nuclear fusion research, particularly inertial confinement simulations.
These are computationally intensive problems involving strongly correlated quantum systems and they stand to benefit significantly once eFTQC scales to the upper end of its projected capacity.
By the early 2030s, quantum acceleration could reduce the cost and time required for fusion modeling, advancing humanity’ s pursuit of clean, limitless energy, the report says.
Fields beyond reach – for now
The report acknowledges that not every domain is suited for eFTQC in the near term. Workloads heavily reliant on solving partial differential equations, such as computational fluid dynamics or structural modeling, require quantum resources far beyond what early devices will provide.
Other fields lack sufficient theoretical groundwork to map their problems onto quantum algorithms.
Still, history suggests new applications will emerge once researchers gain access to the hardware itself, the report says.
Quantifying the Potential Impact
The report provides a systematic analysis of workload distribution at major HPC centers. At NERSC, LANL and DOE leadership facilities, materials science, Quantum Chemistry and fusion-related applications together account for 30 – 50 % of usage. This suggests that nearly half of the workloads at these institutions could benefit from eFTQC acceleration in the near term.
“ The HPC community has always been quick to adopt disruptive architectures – from vector processors to GPUs – and Quantum Computing is no exception,”
said Juliette Peyronnet, US General Manager, Alice & Bob and co-author of the report.“ This work is a call to action: centers that begin preparing today will be ready to harness the next major accelerator.”
The quantum frontier is moving fast
One of the most striking findings of the study is the pace at which quantum resource requirements are shrinking. For instance, the number of logical qubits needed to simulate FeMoco has dropped by orders of magnitude in just five years. Similarly, the physical qubit cost of running Shor’ s algorithm has plummeted from billions to under a million, thanks to algorithmic improvements and better qubit encodings.
These trends highlight an accelerating timeline. By 2030, some workloads once thought decades away may become feasible on eFTQC machines. This dynamic mirrors the early days of classical computing, when first-use cases often emerged unexpectedly once hardware was deployed, the report says.
Strategic considerations for HPC centers
The report emphasizes that eFTQC will not be a plug-and-play accelerator. Integrating it into HPC environments requires strategic planning across infrastructure, software and workforce development.
The report identifies three pillars as standing out:
Expertise and Workforce Training
Quantum Computing is rooted in quantum physics while HPC is grounded in computer science and engineering. Bridging this cultural and technical gap requires deliberate investment in training. HPC users and support teams will need to understand fault-
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